MAKING SENSE OF THE SENSEX BULL RUN(Part One)

Source: MAKING SENSE OF THE SENSEX BULL RUN(Part One)

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MAKING SENSE OF THE SENSEX BULL RUN(Part One)

Kuttanlifeissues

MAKING SENSE OF THE SENSEX BULLRUN WHIMS! (Part One)

The Sensex Bull— fuelled by the adrenalin of strong industrial performance, consumer confidence index, reformist policies, governance competence, market behavior etc. — has a tendency to rally upward against all resistance when it runs but then it also has a habit of pausing from time to time as if to breathe in.

The Bear chases it as best as it can with lots of ominous geopolitical and governance variables, sudden cataclysms, the ‘educated unemployment’ jinx, the NPA burden, ministry instability and so on.

The MFs and investments you have also behave in tune with these ups and downs!

The Indian investor community seeks to analyze this behavior though the layman in a quandary over where to put his surplus money for getting a return is frightened out of his wits by the sensation-addicted Indian media!

As Aeneid puts it, though not…

View original post 860 more words

MAKING SENSE OF THE SENSEX BULL RUN(Part One)

MAKING SENSE OF THE SENSEX BULLRUN WHIMS! (Part One)

The Sensex Bull— fuelled by the adrenalin of strong industrial performance, consumer confidence index, reformist policies, governance competence, market behavior etc. — has a tendency to rally upward against all resistance when it runs but then it also has a habit of pausing from time to time as if to breathe in.

The Bear chases it as best as it can with lots of ominous geopolitical and governance variables, sudden cataclysms, the ‘educated unemployment’ jinx, the NPA burden, ministry instability and so on.

The MFs and investments you have also behave in tune with these ups and downs!

The Indian investor community seeks to analyze this behavior though the layman in a quandary over where to put his surplus money for getting a return is frightened out of his wits by the sensation-addicted Indian media!

As Aeneid puts it, though not in relation to the investing community in India, “Through chances various, through vicissitudes, we make our way!

India’s Sensex, which gives you a bird’s eye view of the Indian economy and industry at work, is no less important than Hang Seng of Hong Kong or NASDAQ/DOW JONES of US. All these have their Bulls and Bears too, no less!

What seeks to give us through its roller coaster ride is information of the most vital kind—i.e. if you happen be zestfully participating in the same as an investor. Information is today’s masterly weapon-and the Sensex Bull runs or Bearish behavior gives you that.

[To be honest, I came into this high voltage zone but recently and rather serendipitously, and I make it a point to attend all enlightenment and elucidation sessions conducted by the stocks and securities firm I am sentimentally attached to –called CAPSTOCKS & SECURITIES Ltd—but by this time I’ve learned one lesson—that P/E Ratio (Price Earnings Ratio) holds the key to the possibility of an air pocket on the Sensex route.

P/E tells you if the stocks are overpriced or not. The bigger the P/E, the greater the chances are that the markets are overpriced. At the moment the P/E Ratio for the Sensex is 22.71, a historical peak that overshadows the 20.72 of 2006-2007—the year prior to the global financial recession!]

The rest –whether you wish to trade your stocks and redeem your MFs- is up to you! The short term scenario remains bumpy, I admit, but be assured that India remains a longtime high growth story nevertheless!

[“To invest successfully” , remarks Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, “over a lifetime doesn’t require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information. What’s needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework”]

In India both NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex have been steadily climbing all these months: if the former has crossed over into the 31000’s, the latter has crossed 10000.These figures had been bandied about way back in 2014 too as unachievable but the bull run, which began in February 2016, has been going on at a slower pace ever since.

Equities-whose total worth exceeds USD 20 trillion, are marginally behind Canada and Germany counterparts and are already up a staggering 19% or by USD 2 Trillion! An X Factor is driving the pair especially in the light of both corporate performance being down and private corporate investment remaining flat. Thanks to this factor, Indian markets have, like a matador, shrugged off anti-growth factors like the US Fed rate hike, Trump’s unexpected victory, or the Brexit.

Nay, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been charmed by the ruling party’s blitzkrieg victory in UP, the GST Bill passage, and improving macros, rising Consumer Confidence Index and so on.

The X Factor I referred to earlier, and which this blog seeks to investigate, has been partly due to the overall effect of these FPI’s buying and selling behavior. Partly it has been owing to strong domestic inflows from, insurance, MFs and stocks.

The only joker in the pack, with some nuisance potential, seems to be domestic corporate earnings!

FPI inflows in millions of USDs drive the markets –and Sensex and Nifty–upward, whereas outflows pull it down notch by notch too! An inflow of >60 billion into Indian equities during 2012-2014 period saw the Sensex bull champing at the bits and starting to run. That early momentum ceased but the Sensex bull doesn’t in any manner look exhausted by the looks of it!

At the moment there is heavy FPI dollar inflow month after month with totals hovering about 5 billion USD; this run began in January 2017 and promises to go on for a while—possibly till the next aggressive hike announcement by the US Fed rates ( which is unlikely till the end of 2018)!

Domestic and foreign investors are happy to see this climb because it means the stocks they have in their possession also climb in proportion value-wise and price-wise.

The X Factor has some other components too!

  • SMALL scores BIG during the Bull Run!

The Indian layman having surplus amounts, and in a dilemma whether to deposit or invest,  is frankly risk-averse, though he too knows that the bigger the risk the higher the returns shall be! During the FYs 2014 till this year (2017018) this market axiom has played out to the letter. Both Midcap and Small cap have outsmarted large cap investment- and return-wise.

  • Metals & Chemicals give the fuel too!

The top performer was Tata Metaliks (600% return), followed by Sudarshan Chemical Industries (370% return).Financials, cement, oil and FMCG have also been quite smart performance wise (90 to 100% return)

Overall the BSE Small Cap Index valuation (which is 67 times over the last 5 years and 58 times during one year) has not been expensive; this indicates that the earnings of a good number of companies have kept pace with the rally in their stock price.

I shall be happy to continue this module a couple of days later too!

Bye! Have a Great Day!

ONLY FOR POTENTIAL WARREN BUFFETS!

Kuttanlifeissues

TOWARDS INVESTOR FORESIGHT!

Module One:

A brief introduction is attempted here towards giving the lay listener some investment psychology and basic information!

 

What –and how much–do you understand when I speak of Nifty and Sensex?

ROLLER COASTER STYLE, WE IN INDIA HAVE GROWN!

THANK GOD FOR THAT!

INDIA IS NO BANANA REPUBLIC.

BELIEVE IT AS YOU BELIEVE IN YOUR GOD!

The omnipresent note of caution “Investments in MFs are subject to market risk” frightens away millions!

HAVE DEPOSITS IN BANKS, EH?

Bank depositors live in a fool’s paradise and think they’re being rewarded with a high interest rate (7%).

But what they don’t know is that the amount generates up to 29% or higher % interest for bank managements.

The balance is their profit!

So tell me, WHICH OF THESE TWO has enough reason to smile as they go home?

Japan imports just 46 tons of gold every year.

View original post 217 more words

ONLY FOR POTENTIAL WARREN BUFFETS!

TOWARDS INVESTOR FORESIGHT!

Module One:

A brief introduction is attempted here towards giving the lay listener some investment psychology and basic information!

 

What –and how much–do you understand when I speak of Nifty and Sensex?

ROLLER COASTER STYLE, WE IN INDIA HAVE GROWN!

THANK GOD FOR THAT!

INDIA IS NO BANANA REPUBLIC.

BELIEVE IT AS YOU BELIEVE IN YOUR GOD!

The omnipresent note of caution “Investments in MFs are subject to market risk” frightens away millions!

HAVE DEPOSITS IN BANKS, EH?

Bank depositors live in a fool’s paradise and think they’re being rewarded with a high interest rate (7%).

But what they don’t know is that the amount generates up to 29% or higher % interest for bank managements.

The balance is their profit!

So tell me, WHICH OF THESE TWO has enough reason to smile as they go home?

Japan imports just 46 tons of gold every year.

India?

Around 1500 tons–and counting!!

Altogether Indian women have , stashed away , around a billion tons of the dead yellow metal–dead b/coz it has never been allowed to help towards the Indian economy’s and the nation’s growth!

Our families die with it, and it gets passed on, gets exchanged,sold for a song at times, is used as a reason enough for murder and rape and plunder and eventually it gets stashed again somewhere else!

Diamonds DO get back their full price when you wish to sell them!

But their actual value goes down a bit, thanks to inflation nibbling away from the par-value of the amount!

SELLING IN DISTRESS?

Your landed assets shall appreciate over time, especially in India with her nuclear families and exploding population!

But at least a decade is needed!

Gold, when you wish to resell it in a hurry and in a crisis, get a lower price.

Cited reasons: Used, Wastage!

Both Gold and Land are good investments-but both need time to get converted into cash!

And they can’t be sold without some haggling!

Option B: “Let your money work both for nurturing the Indian economy and you in a big way!

Let IT thank you!”

Option A:”Put your surplus amount in some bank deposit, sit back and enjoy your golden autumn!”

 

THE RAM-RAHIM VERSION OF SPIRITUALITY!

Kuttanlifeissues

PROSTITUTED SPIRITUALITY!

By the term “spirituality” most of us, at least educated Hindus, understand “a meaningful insight to be imbibed from a guru” that is both sacrifice-wise and will-wise ahead of the aspirant .Once the devotee has mastered it, his lifestyle changes to one of lifelong study and lifelong community service of a self-abnegating kind!

The Ram Rahim variety of spirituality, unless we bluntly term it an evolved camouflage for promiscuous sex and accumulation of unearned wealth, refutes the above definition in to. It’s a prostituted version of what we Indians have so far understood by this tricky term, so often confused with “spiritualism”!

Such fake gurus celebrate—in the open- “self-help, self-potential, self-fulfillment, selfishness, self-praise, a marauding corporal egoism at labor to gain popular acceptance” (according to Thomas Measley) by semantic manipulation and rampant marketing gimmicks!

At bottom such vulgar versions of Indian exploration of the human spirit for a…

View original post 342 more words

THE RAM-RAHIM VERSION OF SPIRITUALITY!

PROSTITUTED SPIRITUALITY!

By the term “spirituality” most of us, at least educated Hindus, understand “a meaningful insight to be imbibed from a guru” that is both sacrifice-wise and will-wise ahead of the aspirant .Once the devotee has mastered it, his lifestyle changes to one of lifelong study and lifelong community service of a self-abnegating kind!

The Ram Rahim variety of spirituality, unless we bluntly term it an evolved camouflage for promiscuous sex and accumulation of unearned wealth, refutes the above definition in to. It’s a prostituted version of what we Indians have so far understood by this tricky term, so often confused with “spiritualism”!

Such fake gurus celebrate—in the open- “self-help, self-potential, self-fulfillment, selfishness, self-praise, a marauding corporal egoism at labor to gain popular acceptance” (according to Thomas Measley) by semantic manipulation and rampant marketing gimmicks!

At bottom such vulgar versions of Indian exploration of the human spirit for a nobler end has been a trend created by market forces. Fake gurus believe, despite being ignorant, that they are infallible. They dress themselves in Pied Piper fashion too to take the weak souls in front of them into their fatal hold!

They insult the concept itself through cheap tricks like creating Rolex watches out of thin air, ‘giving birth’ to some Siva Linga (phallus) from their mouths, and communication in a telepathic manner.

If pop spirituality has persisted it’s because IT finds a ready audience in many retired men/women that have nothing to do in life, emotionally volcanic spinsters hoping to escape home boredom through some patched up wedding, and who are childless and barren!

All fake gurus give a listening ear to endless rigmaroles of their devotees, which incidentally are jeremiads of a kind. They use their gentle tone to advice and counsel the depressed soul hugging them or prostrate at their feet but then uses these persons to amass their own wealth by persuading them to part with huge sums apparently for externally noble causes!

If the devotee is professionally skilled, they get brainwashed to the guru’s way of thinking and world view and then coaxed and cajoled to join the faculty of the educational or medical institution run by the guru himself at a peanut pay!

All kinds of snobs –and frustrated souls–tend to flock to such gurus without sparing a moment to think of how much precious time they are wasting this way in chasing the will-o-the-wisp aka Nirvana!

Most Hindus remain convinced that Nirvanas is obtainable only after they die. But this is not true. A happy contented home is Heaven. A warring family finds itself in a virtual Hell!

Both pop spirituality and its smelly vulgarized version bring shame to India, the mother land of Hindu life style. [There is no Hinduism as such, and everyone, no matter his faith, can lead a Hindu lifestyle with some self-sacrifice and self-discipline. What the Indian media call Hinduism is the political Kathakali distilled out of the Hindu lifestyle!]